“Tell me what is happening to the Lincoln property market”, asked the friend of a friend at a recent do I went to in Lincoln (after finding out I was an agent in Lincoln).
I always reply, “It depends if you are buying, selling or both”.
The Lincoln property market is like a seesaw. For the last two years, it has been quite firmly in the realms of a 90% seller’s/10% buyer’s market.
However, unless you are a Lincoln buy-to-let landlord, Lincoln first-time buyer, or executors selling a deceased person’s estate, most home movers are both (i.e. they are both sellers and buyers).
So, what determines where we are on the seesaw of a seller’s market or a buyer’s market?
It comes down to simple supply and demand economics. i.e. the number of properties on the market versus the number of buyers in the market.
Like when someone sells goods or services, it’s the same with property. So, when we have a low supply of properties on the market and high demand for properties to move into (like we have had for the last two years since the end of lockdown one), house prices go up.
Lincoln house prices are 9.2% higher than a year ago.
The other side of the coin was seen in the Credit Crunch years of 2008/9. Many people wanted to sell their houses in Lincoln, yet the banks weren’t lending, so people couldn’t buy. This meant the supply of property on the market exceeded demand; hence Lincoln house prices dropped by 16% to 19% in 18 months (depending on what type of property you were selling) as we had a 20% seller’s market / 80% buyer’s market.
Whilst demand and supply are the key driving force on the balance of the buyer/seller’s market seesaw, it is not the only influencer of the property market. The price band is also an essential determiner of house prices, albeit over the longer term.
To show this, initially, I will go back to 1995 to ascertain what has happened to average house prices over the long term in Lincoln.
The average Lincoln house price has risen from £39,871 in 1995
to £197,178 in 2021, a growth of 394.5%.
Interesting, when you compare that against the national figure of 407.2%. Also, looking at where our local authority stands against other areas, we are 178th out of 331 local authorities in England & Wales for house price growth.
It’s called the property ladder for an excellent reason, and the health of the whole Lincoln property market is very dependent on those bottom rungs of that ladder.
Therefore, looking at the data for our local authority, paying particular attention to the lower end (in terms of price), some intriguing data comes to light. It is crucial as the lower end of the property market (in terms of price) is a good bellwether for the whole Lincoln property market.
So, I looked at the following …
- Lower 10th Percentile of the Lincoln housing market – i.e., the bottom 10% in terms of the value of properties sold – e.g., small apartments and ex-local authority properties in the less popular areas, which mainly attract buy-to-let landlords.
- Lower Quartile of the Lincoln housing market – i.e., the bottom 25% of Lincoln property in terms of their value, e.g., first-time buyer homes and mid-market buy-to-let property.
… and if one looks at our figures for Lincoln and the whole local authority, you can see it’s quite interesting how the three parts (lowest 10% / lowest 25% and overall average) have performed.
- The average value of a Lincoln property sold in 1995 in the lower 10th percentile (i.e., the bottom 10% of the Lincoln property market) was £24,250, and in 2021, it was £112,000, a growth of 361.9% (compared to the national average of 428.4%).
- The average value of a Lincoln property sold in 1995 in the lower quartile (i.e., the bottom 25% of the Lincoln property market) was £30,000, and in 2021, it was £138,000, a growth of 360% (compared to the national average of 417.7%).
Some of you might be asking yourself, what do all these different figures mean to Lincoln homeowners, first-time buyers, and landlords?
As the overall average is above the lower 10th percentile and lower quartile growth figures,
the middle to upper market in Lincoln has performed better than
the lower end in terms of house price growth since 1995.
The thought I am trying to get across to every Lincoln homeowner/buy-to-let landlord is that there isn’t just ‘one’ Lincoln property market.
There are markets within markets – almost like a fly’s eye. It is essential not to look at just the headlines but delve deeper when considering what is really happening and not to just look at the overall averages.
As we enter the height of the summer, the Lincoln property market seesaw has started to change ever so slightly, changing from the 90% seller’s/10% buyer’s market we have had in the last two years to more of a 70% seller’s/30% buyer’s market.
With that in mind, if you can spot trends before anyone else is aware of them you could find yourself some potential Lincoln property bargains.
👂 Audio Version – walters-move.me/Audio
